THE FORESIGHT TECHNOLOGIES IN ANTI-NARCOTIC PREVENTION: SCENARIO MODELING AND MESO-STRATEGY IN THE KABARDINO-BALKARIA REPUBLIC

  • Authors: Akhokhova A.V.1,2, Khachetlov T.A.1, Matarov I.R.1, Kardanov A.A.1, Mustafayeva G.K.1, Istamulova K.R.1, Nyrov A.A.1
  • Affiliations:
    1. The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia
    2. The State Budget Institution "The Republican Clinical Center of Psychiatry and Narcology" of the Minzdrav of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, 360032, Nalchik, Russia
  • Issue: Vol 34, No 1 (2026)
  • Pages: 75-83
  • Section: Articles
  • URL: https://journal-nriph.ru/journal/article/view/2537
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.32687/0869-866X-2026-34-1-75-83
  • Cite item

Abstract


The purpose of the study is to determine directions of strategy of intersectoral interaction in preventing drug consumption in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic based on the Foresight approach and scenario modeling of arising trends in society narcotization. The Foresight methodological tools were used (PESTLE analysis, scenario forecast, drivers and bifurcation points identification, the Popper diamond). The data base for analysis included statistical data from narcologic services, the reports of the WHO, the UNODC, the Main Directorate for Drug Control of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation and expert assessments. The analysis of study results permitted to identify key trends (increase of poly-narcomania, intensification of synthetic drugs, rejuvenation of drug addicts and drug market digitization). The probable and possible scenarios of development such as inertial, optimistic, crisis and innovative ones were determined. The drivers and bifurcation points capable radically change trajectory of drug situation were identified. The necessity of transition from predominantly repressive approach to preventive and rehabilitative one, integration of digital monitoring technologies (WBE, Big Data) and development of individual plan of prevention set-back are substantiated. The conclusions are made that the Foresight analysis in the field of anti-narcotic prevention is efficient tool of proactive risk management that permits to coordinate Federal and regional strategies. For the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, special importance acquires development of "meso-strategy" based on intersectoral cooperation, use of ethno-confessional resources and educational and cultural potential. The scenario modeling provides opportunity to be prepared for potential menaces and to develop sustainable trajectory of reducing drug risks and promoting public health by 2030.

About the authors

A. V. Akhokhova

The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia; The State Budget Institution "The Republican Clinical Center of Psychiatry and Narcology" of the Minzdrav of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, 360032, Nalchik, Russia

T. A. Khachetlov

The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia

I. R. Matarov

The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia

A. A. Kardanov

The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia

G. K. Mustafayeva

The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia

Kh. R. Istamulova

The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia

A. A. Nyrov

The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Kabardino-Balkarian State University named after H. M. Berbekov" of Minobrnauka of Russia, 360004, Nalchik, Russia

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