The article is devoted to the study of key trends in natural reproduction of rural population of the Central Chernozem Region. The main factors determining the given trends and prospects of process are established. The Rosstat data characterizing demographic situation in the Central Chernozem Region in 2020–2024 and the results of expert survey carried out in August-September 2024 (N = 32) were used as basis for analysis. The conclusion was made that scope of natural loss of population in rural areas of the Central Chernozem Region are conditioned by super-mortality during pandemic during the pandemic combined with delayed births and influence of geopolitical factor associated with the Special Military Operation. It is concluded that further prospects of natural reproduction of rural population of the Central Chernozem Region (primarily the Belgorod and Kursk regions) are in the “risk” zone. The prospects for overcoming consequences of demographic decline not only depend on stabilization of geopolitical situation but require intensification and restructuring of measures of state demographic policy, consisting in application of differentiated approach to regions, in development of targeted mortgage programs, in improvement of social, engineering, cultural and leisure, transport, communications infrastructure, in prevention of stressful social environment and self-destructive behavior of rural residents.

rural population, rural territory, natural reproduction, natural population loss, population dynamics, demographic situation, demographic potential, depopulation, Central Chernozem Region.